The Olympic gamble: behavioral economics behind the games
As we cheer on Team USA at Milano Cortina 2026, CHIBE Director Dr. Kevin Volpp spoke to us about the psychology and behavioral economics elements at play for Olympians.
Lindsey Vonn competed with a ruptured ACL and ended up breaking her leg in the downhill. What incentives do you think are at play for Olympians to compete even with serious injuries? What explains why they prioritize short-term gains over long-term health outcomes?
It appears that Lindsey Vonn breaking her leg was not related to her ruptured ACL, but, in any case, there is no question she put everything on the line in her race. For downhill skiers there is a challenging balance between pushing the limits of what is physically possible and managing risk.
There are enormous incentives to compete if at all possible because the Olympics only come once every 4 years and for athletes in their 30s there are questions of whether they will ever be able to be as competitive as they are today.
There are significant financial benefits to winning Olympic medals for athletes who are successful and elite status that will endure for a lifetime.
These are all good reasons for Olympic athletes to take calculated risks.
Do you think the fact that the Olympics occur only once every 4 years might make people behave more irrationally?
I don’t think we should consider this irrational behavior – considering the potential benefits. There are considerable risks in competing in events like downhill skiing, but these are well known and well documented.
Even recreational skiers take considerable risks – and that is without the potential glory of doing well in the Olympics.
One in 10 parents believe their kid could compete in the Olympics, but the actual probability of someone becoming an Olympian is miniscule. What do you think makes parents overconfident about their kids’ odds?
This is an interesting statistic. Similar statistics hold true for parents’ beliefs about their child become a professional basketball player or football player, though it is extremely unlikely.
People focus on those who made it and think “why not my child” instead of the far, far larger number of people who did not make it who they don’t know of.
There are also complex identity issues in terms of how people want to see themselves or their children.
Over-optimism holds true in other contexts. About 90% of people consider themselves a better-than-average driver. And far more people who launch start-ups expect to succeed than actually do.